Future lithium batteries: critical mineral supply
Availability, forecasts and competition are the critical success factors
For Innovation Cube, the area of innovation that has characterized the last car Bologna Motor Show, one of the leitmotifs was "to show what you normally do not see in a car" and, between the various technologies shown, the lithium ion battery is undoubtedly the one that today plays the most crucial to the success of the electric car.
The variables for the diffusion of lithium-ion batteries are financial and geopolitical: the small and poor Bolivia is the Saudi Arabia of lithium, having 73 million cubic meters of lithium carbonate, more than half of the global amount. It 'easy if it is estimated that only one country, in fact, the holder of lithium means that the price is not going to decrease, even if you increase production.
President Evo Morales seems willing to nationalize the industry of lithium with the aim of channeling directly on the population and the economic benefits seem stalled attempts to dialogue with Toyota and Mitsubishi for a development plan for the Bolivian lithium.
Toyota already owns the majority of the production related to the Prius hybrid, while Rick Wagoner, CEO of GM, has determined that the competence of the production of batteries should be of the same GM, which is already building a plant in collaboration with the ' University of Michigan. Other houses look to Chinese BYD, former leader of batteries for mobile phones, as a supplier of lithium batteries for their vehicles.
The key question is whether the influence of the Bolivian lithium will increase the price of batteries, some sources indicate that potentially up to $ 10,000 per vehicle, or if the demand will grow as much as anticipated. Jennifer Moore, a spokesman for Ford, hopes to have its range of electric vehicles batteries (BEV) in North America in 2012, and said that much will depend on how much technology progresses and the cost of lithium batteries.
Mitsubishi has even instructed the TRU Group consulting firm to do an analysis of trends in the lithium market until 2020. Despite the recession that has caused a surplus of lithium until 2013, in the next 5 years and up to 2020 the demand will increase significantly and will be satisfied for the electrification of the auto industry.
President Morales to successfully manage the potential of its mines has the need to actively involve car manufacturers and therefore certainly will have to find a way to deal with them.
Erastus Almedia of Eurasia, an agency specializing in risk consulting government believes that Morales can do the nationalist but will eventually accept foreign investment, technological support and involvement of car manufacturers in the production of lithium. In this regard, even Saul Villegas, director of the Bolivian Mining Corporation thinks that car manufacturers will bring the know-how missing with their investments, being already present in the scientific committee wanted by the Bolivian government.
04/02/2009
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Translated via software
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Source:
Italian version of ReteArchitetti.it